The 7 Crucial States

Pollsters have started early. The election commission has still not made any announcements regards General Election 2014. Some agencies also realize that much water will flow between now and the Polling day. Some early birds however have taken a plunge. Intresting facts seem to emerge from the exercises being Telecast and reported in Newspapers.

It is a forgone conclusion now that NDA led by BJP will be the largest alliance post polls. It will need a miracle of sorts for UPA to even achieve 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Most Congressmen realize the writing on the wall and the side effects are visible. Not nominating Rahul Gandhi as Prime Ministeral candidate ,support to the intrepid and incorrigible AAP in Delhi assembly are ample manisfetations of the realisation. The INC seems to have gone in rear guard mode of restricting further damage. The Congress seems nearly apologetic on all issues from Price Rise to Corruption .The Congress think tank tries to make the people believe that an introspection of sorts has been completed and the Party is ready to implement.Cynics however cite the numerous “Manthans and Chintans” leading to nowhere in recent past.

The NDA on it’s part seems to be in no mood to consolidate. 272+ notwithstanding even hardcore RSS realizes the fact that majority in Lok Sabha for NDA in present form is a mirage leave aside  for BJP alone. Another miracle though of lesser magnitude will be needed if the magic figure is to be attained by NDA. A bigger hurdle is the the antagonist approach and image of it’s Prime Ministeral candidate.The tag of non-secular on BJP is another issue which will time and again become a hurdle .

 Reports suggest that state by state analysis is being done by BJP on a fortnightly basis. 

The Samajwadi Party  under the leadership of Mr.Mulayam Singh Yadav is in a hurry to hand the UP platter by virtue of it’s governance. For some reasons the BSP is not biting the bait.It suits BJP the most.  Considering the importance of Uttar Pradesh ,the leader in charge Mr.Amit Shah has been given immense leverage and responsibilty.It is another matter now that his style of functioning is being detested by state party leaders.

Bihar will be another big test for BJP. The infighting among it’s state leaders has become butt of jokes in political circles in Bihar.. Back channel talks between RJD and JDU had been reported but any alliance is a far fetched conclusion.

In Andhra Pradesh the situation is too fluid for BJP think tank to call.Both YSR Congress and TDP could be allies. It certainly will be a post poll alliance as BJP will never commit the folly of going with the lesser achiever.Mr.Rao of TRS can easily be cajoled to join NDA is known to BJP. It’s going alone can certainly mis fire in Assam as the votes will be divided in between BJP and AGP. However AGP can only make a dent if it gets it’s house together. Karnartaka will again be a tough nut to crack for BJP even with Yeddy back .The party seems to have lost a bit of credibilty in the state.With strong entry of AAP in Delhi and Haryana both Congress and BJP have lost grounds.

These seven states will decide how BJP is able to cope up with realities of Power and Power sharing. Much will also depend on Mr.Narendra Modi speech writers who seem to be in a hurry. BJP media cell also needs to be subtle as their over the board campaigns seem to back fire.